Dave’s 3rd post

Author: afdave1 [ Mon Jun 18, 2007 7:35 am ]
Post subject:


David Rohl has pointed out some serious problems with dendrochronology in A Test of Time (Pharoahs and Kings: A Biblical Quest), 1995, Appendix C, and an excerpt is provided below.



Note the highlighted portion above …

Thus one would be justified in asking if the crucial cross-links which connect up the floating sequences of the Belfast and German chronologies [and by inference, all the other sequences] are based on incorrect wiggle-matches which have resulted from the phenomenon of auto-correlation.

And further questions would be …

Why does Mazar reject the dendro curve? How about the wiggle-match problems? How about auto-correlation? How about inflated t-values? How about the Sweet Track Chronology being withdrawn? The South German sequence abandoned? Why did Kuniholm reject the date with the highest t-value? And so on?

Ferguson’s study analyzed in my last post cannot be dismissed as “an old study.” It seems foundational and is referred to often by later investigators and seems to exemplify the methodology used by all other dendrochronologists, namely …

1) Make an arbitrary assumption that C14 concentration has been more or less constant for at least the past 100,000 years, which requires denial of the Global Flood and its effects on C14 ~4750 years ago
2) Select “good” trees which “date” by C14 to the approximate time frame for which you want to build your chronology.
3) Look for matching patterns which supposedly indicate that the corresponding rings occurred during the same year.

Once this is done, I suppose that various wooden items such a roof beams from ancient sites can be placed in the approximate time frame by C14, then placed more accurately by matching rings in the master sequence.

As far as I can tell, this is the supposed value of dendrochronology “calibraton” of C14.

Note that physicist SAWells (PhD in earth sciences from Cambridge) confirmed point (2) above in this Forum in the Dendro Comment thread …

SAWells Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2007 5:43 pm
a) Samples are often roughly ordered using C14, simply so that you don’t waste time trying to ring-match a ~10000YO sample with a modern one. This rough ordering is not the final date assigned to the sample.

1) the HUGE assumption that there was no Global Flood calls into question ALL C14 dates >~3000 yo. So the “rough ordering” of samples >3000 yo is highly suspect.
2) Even if (1) were not a glaring problem, Rohl’s discussion above is very telling and raises numerous questions which cannot be hand waved away.

Do you get the picture?

It seems that if we strip away all the pre-conceptions of uniform C14 and >10,000 year history of civilization, what we have left is some extremely questionable assumptions applied to some not-very-robust data sets to come up with some very shaky conclusions.

Not the way I like doing science.


Now, BWE … please …

I am not interested in later papers at the moment. I am INITIALLY interested understanding MASTER SEQUENCE BUILDING.

Ferguson seems to be a key player in this as basically the “foundation layer” for all that followed.

I should certainly like to see hi-res photos of the 17 samples he used to build that chronology pictured in my last post. Have you seen these samples? Any way to get hi-resolution photos of them? Are the hi-res photos published in some paper somewhere that I can obtain? And how about my questions on the Comment Thread? Can you explain Mean Sensitivity=0.33 and Serial Correlation=0.46? What does this mean?

Thanks. Over to you.


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